The first rule of holes - Stop digging
Anne B. Butterfield, November 22, 2009 (NewEnergyNews)
"The supply of cheap coal is no longer abundant. Seventy percent of Colorado`s electricity comes from coal plants and that is too much today, and over time it will become an impediment to economic growth." - Tom Sanzillo.
Most experienced investors know that the way to invest safely is through a diversified portfolio of stocks picked across a variety of market sectors, with options to keep money in cash, bonds, metals or land. That`s diversity. It spreads the risk and allows flexibility to respond to changing market conditions.
If any stockbroker saw that your portfolio on which you will utterly depend in the future, were 70 percent in one sector, that would be the fist thing he would tell you to change. Too much exposure. Too risky. Too rigid.
Now look at Colorado`s power generation: it comes 70 percent from one fuel type: coal, a fuel source documented by the United States Geological Survey, plus the Departments of Energy, Agriculture and Interior, have all estimated our days of cheap coal ending in as little as two decades.
In Colorado, vaunted as a "coal state" by so many politicians, production of the black rock peaked in 2004 and fell off about one-fifth in four years, according to the Energy Information Administration. On top of that, documents from Xcel Energy show that four mines in Colorado entered "force majeure" status in the past eighteen months meaning they were hampered by exogenous difficulties that freed them from contractual obligations.
The coal situation is a sword of Damocles over Colorado`s prosperity, particularly because when XcelEnergy fires up its new 750 megawatt coal plant soon in Pueblo, it will increase the utility`s coal burn by 25 percent on coal brought in from Wyoming. That means exporting our dollars on fuel we don`t need.
Sending our fuel dollars out of state adds insult to the basic injury of our largest utility increasing its basic rates on people already being disconnected at 5,000 per month, plus passing on coal costs that are will jump by 25 percent this year, both in cost and volume.
Up at our northern fuel source, Wyoming`s Powder River Basin is now producing 40 percent of our nation`s coal from mines that mostly have life spans of less than twenty years. The PRB`s future mine sites shall be much deeper underground than today`s mines, that means escalating costs. Generally all other states producing coal have gotten past their peak production.
"What`s not understood is how expensive it`s going to be to get that coal out of the ground," says Tom Sanzillo, the former acting Comptroller of the State of New York who was responsible for his state`s pension plans, some of the nation`s largest. He made it his calling after retirement to examine the investment case for coal fired power and he now he gives testimony to numerous states` governments. His testimony is that investing in coal power generation in general, and in Colorado in particular, is a sinking ship.
Sanzillo has seen a side of the coal industry that occasionally burps out truth. Attending the World Coal Conference in London in late October, he saw coal executives respond to mini instant polls in which they used hand clickers to vote anonymously. To one question "Do you believe coal reserve assessments to be accurate?" their answer was "No" -- to the tune of 89 percent.
No one is thinking that coal reserves are underestimated, but no one in the business is discussing the problem aloud, either. Sanzillo explains: "It takes a while for people to wrap their heads around this knowledge which means decades of common wisdom being overturned."
And here we are, increasing instead of reducing Colorado`s 70 percent coal profile while the climate bill coming out of the U.S. Congress proposes to intensify our nation`s investment in coal through carbon capture and storage schemes.
That`s sending good money after bad. You don`t invest in a costly, unproven infrastructure to service a fuel source that is fast depleting anymore than you put fancy improvements onto a house that`s been claimed by eminent domain.
Fortunately this week, twenty Colorado state lawmakers asked the U.S. Senate to limit funding for coal and nuclear energy in the energy bill so as not to prevent diversification into efficiency, wind and solar, which even Xcel`s own projections have shown can pay off in savings in as little as four years.