Even coal is in for a revolution

Anne B. Butterfield, February 22, 2009

Even in an uncertain world, you think you know a few things. You know that adjustable rate mortgages are the devil's playground and that a man who is kind to the waitstaff is the right kind to marry. And you know that the United States has two hundred years of coal and we will never be hurting over its price.

And on that last one, you would be wrong.

A trained scientist and a true contrarian at heart, boulder's own local activist Leslie Glustrom decided to check out those brave claims about how America is the "Saudi Arabia of coal," made by every politician and coal supporter (as if those two were fully separate), and above all, by the Energy Information Administration. She reported her findings in a paper posted at Clean Energy Action which planners, voters and consumers should see.

It turns about the EIA has been stating our nation's coal "reserves" strictly in terms of quantity. Jeff Goodell, author of "Big Coal," says this happened because "up (until) 10 years ago or so coal was viewed as a fuel of the past so no one really cared how much we had."

And the grasshopper said to the ant: Oops I could have done better planning.

The metric for coal that matters is "economic recoverability." It's the marketplace and not magic that gets the crumbly, heavy, non-liquid black rock of the mines and onto trains for delivery around the nation. And 40 percent of our nation's coal (or 20 percent of our nation's electricity) comes rumbling out of the Powder River Basin in Wyoming starting on one over-subscribed rail corridor.

Wyoming's coal outperforms the next best producer of West Virginia by a factor of three. About 15 states produce coal, but except for the top four, they all produce less than one-tenth of Wyoming's prowess. West Virginia peaked in production over ten years ago. Kentucky peaked 19 years ago, with its current yield off by a third. Pennsylvania peaked in 1918 and now produces 22 percent of its peak. Ohio peaked in the '60's, now producing less than half what it used to in high-sulfur coal which utilities do not prefer. Illinois produces high sulfur coal at about half the rate of its glory days in the '80's.

See a trend here? America's coal future depends on Wyoming, but all coals are not equal. Wyoming's sub-bituminous coal means it has less heat quotient than other coals, so more of it needs to be dug, transported and burned to make the electricity that's needed.

As if that weren't enough, over 70 percent of Wyoming's coal is under more than a 10-to-1 stripping ratio, meaning that 10 tons of rock need to be cleared for every ton of coal. That ratio is unattractive; for every doubling of overburden of rock over the coal, the more staff are needed -- by a factor of five.

These truths are readily available to thinkers who are willing to look past the EIA for information; Leslie Glustrom's findings are from a coal inventory report drafted by the Departments of Energy, Agriculture and Interior, and most stinging of all from the United States Geological Survey. It says that economic coal reserves of the Wyoming's PRB -- that portion which can be mined, processed, and marketed at a profit -- is 6 percent of the original resource total. That translates to about 20 years left of PRB coal produced and used as we know it, while elsewhere production peaks are leading steadily to valleys.

Oh but we can import coal from Brazil, some say. We can gasify it and send the electrons over transmission lines from Wyoming. These rescue plans leave the geologic mayhem out of sight and remind us that coal gained its hegemony quietly by hiding in impoverished, distant communities and is burnt on the outskirts of town where the powers plants' tall stacks can more thinly disperse the toxins.

With half of our power in this nation coming from coal, and here in Colorado up to 88 percent, we should be as alert to coal as we are to the creepy neighbor. If you turned on a light or ate out of a fridge lately, coal's as much a part of your life as your spouse.

As geologist Alison Burchell points out, this sobering news clarifies our need for efficiency, conservation and long sighted renewable-energy policies. It provides political figures with the cover they need to expedite our long overdue transition to a sustainable future.